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Tua Tagovailoa's MVP odds are higher than Tom Brady's

Coming into the NFL season, there was a lot of hype surrounding the Miami Dolphins. However, some had doubts. Many of these questions concerned whether the Dolphins had enough quarterbacks to be serious contenders in his AFC. In two weeks, these doubts were cleared.

Tua is one of the MVP candidates

On Sunday, the Miami Dolphins lost to the Baltimore Ravens 28-7 at halftime. By the end of the third quarter, it was 35-14. Then the fourth quarter happened and Tua Tagovailoa happened.

Tagovailoa threw for 199 yards and four touchdowns in the fourth quarter as Miami defeated the Ravens by a score of 42–38. Overall, Tua tallied 469 yards and 6 touchdowns in the game. In two weeks, Tagovailoa gained his 739 yards and completed 71.1% of passes. He threw for seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Miami is 2-0 this season.

Sunday’s outing was one of the best performances by a quarterback in recent memory. As a result, Tagovailoa’s odds of winning his NFL MVP have risen exponentially.

Back in the summer, Tua opened as an extreme 150-to-1 long shot to win the award. By day one, his odds had dropped to his 50-to-1. His odds dropped slightly to his 40-to-1 after Tagovailoa’s solid Miami Week 1 victory. But the big move came after Tua’s second week’s masterpiece.

Tagovailoa, now with BetMGM, won the NFL MVP with a 16-1 record. Those odds are his fifth highest in the league, behind Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson. His odds are tied with two-time champions Aaron Rodgers and Jalen Hurts. Tagovailoa has better odds than big names like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, Matt Stafford and Kyler Murray.

Tua Tagovailoa has the fifth highest odds of winning the NFL MVP after getting off to a strong start to the season. (Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Is it sustainable?

Tagovailoa certainly isn’t throwing for six touchdowns and nearly 500 yards every week, but it wouldn’t be too surprising if he took a big step forward this season.

Tagovailoa currently has an offensive coach named Mike McDaniel, who is a contender for NFL Coach of the Year. He wears an elite weapon called Tyreek Hill and he Jaylen Waddle. The offensive line also improved over the offseason.

Tagovailoa has developed a bit of an undeserved reputation throughout its first two seasons. It was clear that his former head coach, Brian Flores, didn’t trust him as long as he could pitch. I didn’t want to open the offense. It’s tough being a young quarterback in that kind of environment. McDaniel seems intent on doing everything to maximize Tagovailoa.

Tagovailoa isn’t the first quarterback to take a big step in his third year. It was drafted before Herbert and few people objected to the selection at the time of the draft.

If he can stay healthy and the Dolphins can compete with the Bills for the top spot in the AFC East, Tua might join the MVP conversation. It’s a long shot, but just not as long a shot as he was two weeks ago.

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