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Chargers vs. Chiefs Sit/Start Thursday Night Football Tips

“They wrote me down, but I don’t write back.” What a great way to end the first week of the fantasy football season.But we were already looking ahead within minutes Geno Smith We’ve dropped the hottest quotes of 2022. Injury updates and reactions to offseason assumptions quickly filled our timelines.

And as week two begins tonight, we’ll see how accurate some of the analysis was.

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Chiefs host Chargers, AFC West battle begins

Again, the NFL’s schedule makers set us up for a good night’s sleep. Instead of a possible Super Bowl matchup, we have a future AFC playoff game. Patrick Mahomes The Chiefs’ new offensive announcement seemed unstoppable, but as we see the blow, Justin Herbert And the Charger still has firepower to match:

I’ve seen and watched this throw more times than I care to admit. I do not understand. Not just the pass itself, but the decision to split the two defenders and match the ball before the third baffles me.and see herbert rear release.he knew it was good before it was good Keenan Allenhand of.

It’s hard to underestimate how much talent will show up on the field in this game.

Last season, Los Angeles ranked sixth in early down pass percentage in neutral conditions at 56.8%. It will open at 66.7% in 2022. But even though he’s a cyborg under center, his aDOT on these plays for Herbert was his 5.5 air yards. For reference, Mahomes posted his 6.6 aDOT on Sunday in similar conditions. Therefore, you would think the Charger would be equally effective on the ground to continue the attack.

Los Angeles was 30th in EPA per rush. Somehow, their runblocking got worse.Kansas City held James Connor Reaching a 40.0% rushing success rate, he needed a touchdown to save the day. Austin Ekeler A similar runout may be required. Or the Chiefs could push the Chargers into a high-scoring affair.

Life without, on the KC side of the ball tyreek hill It looked pretty easy. A longtime belief of mine was that the Chiefs could Frankenstein their receiver room to Hill.Instead of having one man do multiple things, simply there are multiple menIt makes our job as fantasy managers harder, but we quickly found out who had that ‘Tyrek Hill’ feature on Sunday.

Hill was the team’s primary slot receiver in 2021, a position Mahomes targeted for 37.3% of his dropbacks. Juju Smith Schuster When Mekor Hardman Ties for most routes run from the inside. But Smith-Schuster’s 1.79 YPRR was much better.

Not surprisingly, Hill had the most targets for air yards over 20 yards last year. Mahomes’ deep ball his rate is steadily declining as his 2-high coverage increases, but if he gets the chance, he’ll swing for the fence. Again, Hardman got some looks. and of course marquez valdes scantling To keep Kansas City’s penchant for pre-snapshot window dressing intact, we handed it off with a jet sweep.

It’s all still there, but with new (and more) faces. Reports of the Chief’s death were greatly exaggerated. But they still face big challenges.

The Chargers’ defense nearly matched the Bills’ 30.2% pressure ratio. as a result, Derek Carr was 26th in EPA per play. The Raiders’ only explosive passing his play didn’t come until the fourth quarter. Darren WallerMahomes can handle the pressure, but we’ll see if his new passing options can do the same.

don’t bench these guys

I’m trying to suppress the reaction from last week. It’s easy to get aroused when a backseat guy pops up. But you only have a few days to decide on your lineup and you can’t use the hype as a reason to start someone. increase.

Gerald Everett

Getting Everett started (or feeling comfortable about it) shouldn’t depend on Allen’s availability (he’s already ruled out). Sure, anyone could connect his two dots, making Herbert’s choice one less than him and increasing Everett’s chances. However, it remains to be seen how the Chargers will fill the Allen-size hole in the offense. So let’s start with what we know.

At worst, Los Angeles was mitigating Everett’s offense. His TPRR of 17.4% ranked him 15th among peers (minimum of 4 targets). However, compare his usage to other tight ends on the new team. Evan Engramhad a TPRR of 11.4%. O.J. Howard I got half the number of targets and forgot Austin Hooper I was with the Titans until the fourth quarter. Additionally, Everett was efficient with the looks she received.

Everett’s YPRR was 2.35, ranking in the top five, and half of his goals were met while the Chargers were in scoring position. The Chargers’ willingness to move him in the first game (slot, wide, backfield) hints at their plan. Thursday night, we’ll start him off with his top 12 options for the most fringe.

Jerrick McKinnon

i feel validated Clyde Edwards Helea after sunday. The Chiefs positioned him as a rusher and receiver as we all envisioned, with two touchdowns to keep his hopes up. But he was not a one-man army.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a big dream day in week one. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

McKinnon matched Edwards Heller in number of snaps (27), but McKinnon’s target per route run (TPRR) rate of 22.2% was higher than Edwards Heller (20.0%). McKinnon also had a higher EPA per rush (0.3 to 0.15) while the game was still competitive. His only blunder is Red He didn’t get out in the zone, but we don’t expect a similar scenario tonight.

McKinnon traded 1-1 for Edwards-Helaire in Week 1. At age 30, his 13.6 YAC was the same as his younger counterpart (14.0). Kansas City needs an explosive play to keep up with Los Angeles and McKinnon is still going strong.If you need support at RB, talk to McKinnon.

Mekor Hardman

Do not twist. I’m not trying to track down touchdowns here. Hardman was shimmying in the end his zone after most of the Cardinals fans had left the stadium. Additionally, he only had 16 receiving his yards on the day. But his usage caught my eye as the Chiefs need to use all their weapons to get a win tonight.

Hardman found a target on 24.0% of his routes in week one. Travis Kelce Smith-Schuster in higher proportion.of type The target of was also interesting.

Hardman led the team in red zone targets (3), tying Smith-Schuster in deep targets, and the remaining targets reaching short areas of the field. He mostly stayed on the perimeter, but allowed for box-scoring volatility. But that didn’t stop Mahomes from looking for Hardman’s ways.

My only concern is Mahomes’ participation in the route, as he only appeared in 25 of his 41 dropbacks (the fewest of any full-time player). However, Hardman secured his share of 28.3% of his air yards in the season opener. Given his track record, he’s not very popular, but it’s worth a try if your lineup needs a punch.

wait a week and see what happens

On the other hand, I don’t want to overreact to a one-game sample. We’re still holding onto some preseason narratives that couldn’t match last week’s action. I’ll leave it in

Joshua Palmer

Palmer’s offseason story has been that he’s replacing Allen. His 10.0 aDOT is consistent with where Allen normally operates. It was Palmer who took over the coveted Chargers slot role when Allen missed time last season. Still, we didn’t see his sophomore job after Allen exited the game.

The positive spin was that he ran the second most routes and was the only WR to set a Los Angeles red zone target in Week 1.But with Palmer deandre carter Split the role of the slot between each of the three targets. And Carter was more productive in a duo with downfield versatility.

Palmer looks like another cog in the Herbert machine. I would like more time to clarify, even in what is expected to be a high-scoring contest.

Isaiah Pacheco

Maybe I’m the stubborn person here. Anyway, I need to see more from Pacheco, and Boxscore scouts will be quick to point to his yardage total as a reason to start him. yeah nice I would be happy if he had 12.2 points from the late game players as well. But let’s be a little realistic about his results.

Pacheco’s first touch didn’t come until the Chiefs’ third drive as the last man in the rotation. He gained two yards on two carries (on one goal-line attempt). We didn’t see the rookie again until the fourth quarter when the score was 37-15 for him. With the game in hand, Pacheco got 60 of 62 yards, Edwards-Helaire took his seat, and McKinnon took a meaningless carry on his final drive. It’s hard to see a similar game scenario in TNF.

Pacheco did nothing to change his place in the pecking order on Sunday. He was the least efficient of the trio on the ground (he had 0.01 EPA per trial). Furthermore, he didn’t get a single target in just his four routes. He wants to wait another week for more clarity on Pacheco’s future role.

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